Sunday, November 15, 2009

Warren Buffett: The financial panic is over

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Warren Buffett, perhaps the world's most admired investor, said on Thursday the financial panic that gripped the globe last year is a thing of the past, even as the U.S. economy's struggles persist.

"The financial panic is behind us," the world's second-richest person said at Columbia University's business school. "Our economy was sputtering, still is sputtering some."

Buffett, 79, nevertheless said there is greater opportunity for investments inside the United States than outside, noting that the U.S. economy is far larger than any other.

He appeared at Columbia with Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) founder Bill Gates, the world's richest person and a Buffett friend and bridge partner.

Last month, preliminary government data showed the U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter, the first three-month period of growth since the second quarter of 2008.
Nonetheless, the U.S. unemployment rate last month reached 10.2 percent, the first double-digit reading in 26 years.

Buffett last week made a big bet on the U.S. economy when his Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) (BRKb.N) agreed to pay about $26.4 billion for the 77 percent of railroad company Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (BNI.N) that it did not already own.

"There will be more people in this country, 10, 20, 30 years from now," Buffett said. "They'll be moving more and more goods back and forth to each other and the most environmentally friendly and cost-efficient way of doing that is railroads."

Buffett said rail transport uses one-third less fuel and pollutes the air less than trucks, and that one train can supplant about 280 trucks.

Gates, who is also a Berkshire director, said other sectors might also boost the economy over the long term, including information technology, energy and medicine.

Separately, Buffett advised the U.S. government not to coddle companies that need bailouts to survive or preserve capital.

"More sticks are called for," he said.

Buffett gave Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner "high marks" for how they managed the financial crisis.

The billionaire has praised Bernanke in the past, while mocking Geithner's stress tests for banks.
CNBC television was a host for the Columbia event.

Source: Reuters

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Monday, October 19, 2009

Asia to Dominate World Economy

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said the global economy’s “center of gravity” is moving to Asia and that the region will dominate in the future.

The U.S. will have less influence with global institutions as nations such as China and India carry more weight, Fischer said. The International Monetary Fund’s first deputy managing director from China is “on his way” in the next few years, he said, adding that it is already known who will occupy the post.

“Now that the center of gravity is moving, these countries want to take a larger role in running the global economy,” Fischer said today at a Tel Aviv University symposium on China, Israel and the world economy. “The crisis has accelerated this process.”

The IMF this month forecast that Asia’s emerging-market economies will expand 6.2 percent in 2009 while the U.S., Europe and Japan all contract. Fischer, 66, who previously served as deputy managing director of the IMF and vice chairman of Citigroup Inc., said China’s economy is 16 times larger today than it was 29 years ago.

The Chinese economy, the third largest in the world after the U.S. and Japan when measured in purchasing power, is likely to overtake the U.S., he said.

“China will catch up reasonably quickly,” Fischer said. Still, the country’s fast growth pace can’t continue “forever” and expansion is likely to slow in the future, he said.

China’s plan to move rapidly toward clean energy could provide an opportunity for Israel in joint development of these types of technologies, Fischer said.

Israel has managed to overcome the worst of the global crisis “relatively well” and growth has been restored, he said. Still, unemployment is “too high” at 8 percent, he said.

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Asia Must Continue Stimulus as Economies Rebound, IMF Says (bloomberg.com)

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China Economic Growth Raises Industrial Overcapacity Concerns

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Faster economic growth in China, fueled by the government’s $586 billion stimulus package and record bank lending, is raising concerns about industrial overcapacity, a government official said today.

“While the government is ensuring economic growth, we are also concerned about overcapacity in some industries,” Xiong Bilin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission’s industry department, said at a briefing in Beijing.

China is curbing financing of projects in industries including steel, cement and aluminum to prevent the government’s stimulus package and $1.3 trillion of new bank loans from spurring excess investment. Economic growth may accelerate to 8.9 percent in the third-quarter from 7.9 percent in the second and 6.1 percent in the first three months of this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Achieving growth of more than 7 percent in the first nine months of this year “shouldn’t be a problem” for the world’s third-biggest economy, Xiong said today. China is scheduled to release third-quarter gross domestic product figures Oct. 22.

The economy may grow 8.5 percent this year, with growth in the second half accelerating to more than 9 percent, Caijing Magazine reported on its Web site late yesterday, citing Yu Bin, head of the macro-economic research department at the State Council Development and Research Center.

China’s State Council, or cabinet, approved plans last month to curb overcapacity in industries including steel, glass and aluminum. The government halted construction of new aluminum smelters, cement plants and the expansion of coking coal projects and shipyards.

Projects that fail to meet government guidelines may not raise capital through sales of bonds or stock, the State Council said on Sept. 29.

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Sunday, October 18, 2009

China Government Researcher Sees 2009 GDP at 8.5%, Caijing Says

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy may grow 8.5 percent this year as the government’s stimulus package boosts investment and consumer spending, Caijing Magazine reported, citing a top researcher with the State Council, or cabinet.

Growth in the second half of this year may accelerate to more than 9 percent, Yu Bin, head of the macro-economic research department at the State Council Development and Research Center, was quoted as saying. China’s economy expanded 9 percent in 2008 and grew 7.9 percent between April and June from a year earlier.

Exports, which are likely to drop by 17 percent this year, will resume growth in 2010, rising 8 percent to 10 percent, Yu said.

The outlook for the property sector is uncertain, Yu said, adding that surging house prices may curb demand and sales.

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