Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said the global economy’s “center of gravity” is moving to Asia and that the region will dominate in the future.
The U.S. will have less influence with global institutions as nations such as China and India carry more weight, Fischer said. The International Monetary Fund’s first deputy managing director from China is “on his way” in the next few years, he said, adding that it is already known who will occupy the post.
“Now that the center of gravity is moving, these countries want to take a larger role in running the global economy,” Fischer said today at a Tel Aviv University symposium on China, Israel and the world economy. “The crisis has accelerated this process.”
The IMF this month forecast that Asia’s emerging-market economies will expand 6.2 percent in 2009 while the U.S., Europe and Japan all contract. Fischer, 66, who previously served as deputy managing director of the IMF and vice chairman of Citigroup Inc., said China’s economy is 16 times larger today than it was 29 years ago.
The Chinese economy, the third largest in the world after the U.S. and Japan when measured in purchasing power, is likely to overtake the U.S., he said.
“China will catch up reasonably quickly,” Fischer said. Still, the country’s fast growth pace can’t continue “forever” and expansion is likely to slow in the future, he said.
China’s plan to move rapidly toward clean energy could provide an opportunity for Israel in joint development of these types of technologies, Fischer said.
Israel has managed to overcome the worst of the global crisis “relatively well” and growth has been restored, he said. Still, unemployment is “too high” at 8 percent, he said.
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Monday, October 19, 2009
China Economic Growth Raises Industrial Overcapacity Concerns
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Faster economic growth in China, fueled by the government’s $586 billion stimulus package and record bank lending, is raising concerns about industrial overcapacity, a government official said today.
“While the government is ensuring economic growth, we are also concerned about overcapacity in some industries,” Xiong Bilin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission’s industry department, said at a briefing in Beijing.
China is curbing financing of projects in industries including steel, cement and aluminum to prevent the government’s stimulus package and $1.3 trillion of new bank loans from spurring excess investment. Economic growth may accelerate to 8.9 percent in the third-quarter from 7.9 percent in the second and 6.1 percent in the first three months of this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Achieving growth of more than 7 percent in the first nine months of this year “shouldn’t be a problem” for the world’s third-biggest economy, Xiong said today. China is scheduled to release third-quarter gross domestic product figures Oct. 22.
The economy may grow 8.5 percent this year, with growth in the second half accelerating to more than 9 percent, Caijing Magazine reported on its Web site late yesterday, citing Yu Bin, head of the macro-economic research department at the State Council Development and Research Center.
China’s State Council, or cabinet, approved plans last month to curb overcapacity in industries including steel, glass and aluminum. The government halted construction of new aluminum smelters, cement plants and the expansion of coking coal projects and shipyards.
Projects that fail to meet government guidelines may not raise capital through sales of bonds or stock, the State Council said on Sept. 29.
Related articles
China Government Researcher Sees 2009 GDP at 8.5% (Bloomberg)
China orders crackdown on industrial overcapacity (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
“While the government is ensuring economic growth, we are also concerned about overcapacity in some industries,” Xiong Bilin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission’s industry department, said at a briefing in Beijing.
China is curbing financing of projects in industries including steel, cement and aluminum to prevent the government’s stimulus package and $1.3 trillion of new bank loans from spurring excess investment. Economic growth may accelerate to 8.9 percent in the third-quarter from 7.9 percent in the second and 6.1 percent in the first three months of this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Achieving growth of more than 7 percent in the first nine months of this year “shouldn’t be a problem” for the world’s third-biggest economy, Xiong said today. China is scheduled to release third-quarter gross domestic product figures Oct. 22.
The economy may grow 8.5 percent this year, with growth in the second half accelerating to more than 9 percent, Caijing Magazine reported on its Web site late yesterday, citing Yu Bin, head of the macro-economic research department at the State Council Development and Research Center.
China’s State Council, or cabinet, approved plans last month to curb overcapacity in industries including steel, glass and aluminum. The government halted construction of new aluminum smelters, cement plants and the expansion of coking coal projects and shipyards.
Projects that fail to meet government guidelines may not raise capital through sales of bonds or stock, the State Council said on Sept. 29.
Related articles
China Government Researcher Sees 2009 GDP at 8.5% (Bloomberg)
China orders crackdown on industrial overcapacity (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
Sunday, October 18, 2009
China Government Researcher Sees 2009 GDP at 8.5%, Caijing Says
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economy may grow 8.5 percent this year as the government’s stimulus package boosts investment and consumer spending, Caijing Magazine reported, citing a top researcher with the State Council, or cabinet.
Growth in the second half of this year may accelerate to more than 9 percent, Yu Bin, head of the macro-economic research department at the State Council Development and Research Center, was quoted as saying. China’s economy expanded 9 percent in 2008 and grew 7.9 percent between April and June from a year earlier.
Exports, which are likely to drop by 17 percent this year, will resume growth in 2010, rising 8 percent to 10 percent, Yu said.
The outlook for the property sector is uncertain, Yu said, adding that surging house prices may curb demand and sales.
Related article
China Growth to Slow in Mid-2010 as Stimulus Fades
Growth in the second half of this year may accelerate to more than 9 percent, Yu Bin, head of the macro-economic research department at the State Council Development and Research Center, was quoted as saying. China’s economy expanded 9 percent in 2008 and grew 7.9 percent between April and June from a year earlier.
Exports, which are likely to drop by 17 percent this year, will resume growth in 2010, rising 8 percent to 10 percent, Yu said.
The outlook for the property sector is uncertain, Yu said, adding that surging house prices may curb demand and sales.
Related article
China Growth to Slow in Mid-2010 as Stimulus Fades
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Australia hopes for surplus 2 years early
CANBERRA, Oct 15 - Australia's government hopes to return to a budget surplus in 2014, two years earlier than forecast, thanks to stronger tax receipts and reduced expenses, a newspaper said on Thursday.
The Australian Financial Review, citing no sources, said government officials have begun identifying higher tax receipts and spending cuts that could reduce government debt by A$60 billion and balance the budget.
Treasurer Wayne Swan said in May it would take six years to return to surplus as the government borrowed heavily for stimulus spending to help steer around a global recession.
Swan predicted the deficit would balloon to a record A$57.6 billion in 2009-10 and net debt would climb to 13.8 percent of GDP in 2014 before dropping to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2020.
The government hoped reduced borrowing could see net debt peak at A$130 billion rather than the A$188 billion originally expected, trimming more than A$2 billion off the government's annual interest bill, the paper said.
Swan and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will give a mid-year budget update next month and are expected to revise the government's deficit position as well as forecasts for unemployment to reach 8.5 percent next year.
Australia this month became the first G20 nation to raise official interest rates in the aftermath of the international downturn, lifting the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent and kicking off what most economists expect to be a gradual tightening to around 4.0 percent in 2010.
The Australian Financial Review, citing no sources, said government officials have begun identifying higher tax receipts and spending cuts that could reduce government debt by A$60 billion and balance the budget.
Treasurer Wayne Swan said in May it would take six years to return to surplus as the government borrowed heavily for stimulus spending to help steer around a global recession.
Swan predicted the deficit would balloon to a record A$57.6 billion in 2009-10 and net debt would climb to 13.8 percent of GDP in 2014 before dropping to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2020.
The government hoped reduced borrowing could see net debt peak at A$130 billion rather than the A$188 billion originally expected, trimming more than A$2 billion off the government's annual interest bill, the paper said.
Swan and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will give a mid-year budget update next month and are expected to revise the government's deficit position as well as forecasts for unemployment to reach 8.5 percent next year.
Australia this month became the first G20 nation to raise official interest rates in the aftermath of the international downturn, lifting the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent and kicking off what most economists expect to be a gradual tightening to around 4.0 percent in 2010.
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