Sunday, September 30, 2007

Dreadful Stocks to Avoid

Below are a couple of things you should be aware before you invest your hard earned money.

Warren Buffett's first rule of investing is "Never lose money." To this, he often adds rule No. 2: "Never forget rule No. 1." Of course, following these rules is easier said than done. But Buffett's done pretty well for himself, so it seems unwise to simply dismiss his advice as the semi-coherent ramblings of a man who's read way too many 10-Ks.

I take those rules to heart in my investment strategy. I try to focus my investment dollars on sustainable, undervalued businesses that I can easily understand. Buffett has made more than $40 billion for himself using that strategy, and he's made even more for his partners and shareholders over the years. Do you really need to assume a lot of risk to make more than $40 billion? My answer, and the answer of my colleagues at Motley FoolInsideValue, is "Heck, no!" If I make only $40 billion, I'll be perfectly satisfied.

People spend a lot of time discussing the companies Buffett buys. But in the spirit of not losing money, it's equally worthwhile to understand the types of businesses that Buffett does not buy in order to steer clear of potential duds. I see five main categories:

Businesses that bet the farm

In some industries, companies periodically have to make critically important decisions. If the company makes the wrong choice, it will be dealt a crippling blow. This is terrible for a shareholder, because even if the company makes the right decision one month, it might fail to do so the next. There is no “three strikes and you’re out” policy. One strike, and it’s game over — your money’s gone.

Businesses dependent on research

It’s quite reasonable to believe that research can be a competitive advantage for certain companies. In fact, one reason Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) has been so successful is that it has been able to continually develop new medical technology. Nevertheless, there is a downside to research. Often, innovative companies are required to do research simply to maintain their competitive position. And if the research dries up, the company suffers.

Debt-burdened companies

In general, Buffett avoids companies with a lot of debt. This makes sense. During the best of times, large amounts of debt mean that cash that could be put toward growing the business or rewarding shareholders is instead servicing the debt. In a crisis, debt greatly limits a company’s options and can sometimes lead to bankruptcy.

A more subtle point is that great businesses throw off piles of cash. Great businesses generally don’t need to use huge amounts of debt leverage to achieve an acceptable return for shareholders. So if a company needs debt to achieve reasonable returns, it’s less likely to be a great business.

Companies with questionable management

Management has incredible power. If executives want to enrich themselves at the expense of shareholders, either directly or by misrepresenting the company’s prospects, individual shareholders have almost no hope of preventing them. I strongly recommend avoiding companies where there’s even a hint that management lacks integrity. Some clues to look for here include excessively optimistic press releases, overly generous compensation or options grants, or frequently blaming external circumstances for operational shortcomings. WorldCom and Enron may have gone up for years, but at the end of the day, shareholders received almost nothing. That’s why I think questionable management is the worst flaw a company can have.

Companies that require continued capital investment

Over the long term, shareholders make spectacular returns by buying businesses that are able to achieve extraordinary returns on capital. This leads to excess capital that the company can use to repurchase shares, pay a dividend to shareholders, or reinvest in further growth. Companies that constantly need to make additional capital investment to keep the business going are the antithesis of this ideal — the main beneficiaries will be employees, management, suppliers, and government. In other words, everyone except shareholders.

The full story along with explanations can be found at Fool.com.

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